One of the most popular predictions as a result of global warming has been the ice free arctic sea. These predications have a long history. The scientists like professor Maslowski told BBC in 2007 that arctic sea will be ice free by 2013. These predictions have had influence on politicians like Al Gore and Senator John Kerry who said in 2009 “The truth is that the threat we face is not an abstract concern for the future. It is already upon us and its effects are being felt worldwide, right now. Scientists project that the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer of 2013. Not in 2050, but four years from now.” There are numerous newspapers telling this same story about the ice free arctic sea by 2013 or by 2015.
In Fig.1 is a copy of the satellite photo of the arctic area 21 st of July 2015. As a minor peculiarity there has been an exceptional ice situation on the Hudson Bay during this summer 2015. The icebreakers were sent to help commercial ships because of the ice conditions, which have been worse in 20 years.
Fig.1 The satellite photo over the arctic area in 21st of July 2015.
In Fig.2 is a graphical presentation of sea ice extent development.
Fig. 2. Arctic ice sea extent development.
It looks like that the decrease of the arctic sea ice has paused in the same way as the global temperature has not increased since 1998. The minimum value was in 2012 and it might be that the ice extent is recovering slowly. The Antarctic sea ice in the southern hemisphere has been increasing steadily. The lower part in Fig.2 shows the arctic ice extents during the hundreds of years based on the records of the ships logbooks. It seems to be a fact that the arctic ice is very sensitive for the global temperature changes. For example in the middle of 1800 century the sea ice has been very large as a result of low global temperatures.
In Fig. 3 is a graphical presentation about the total sea ice area and it is clear that we are above the average amount today.
Fig. 3. Total global sea ice area 1979 – 2015.
Media and IPCC puts all emphasis on the arctic sea ice decrease but they do not want to show the overall picture. There is nothing exceptional in the present situation in the long run. The climate change is an ongoing situation. The present sea ice extent has been experienced earlier on the both hemispheres. The overall sea ice area is in the long term average.