Press release September 2, 2019

The greenhouse definition of the IPCC violates physical laws

The contribution of carbon dioxide to the greenhouse effect is only 2.5°C, not 6.3°C or 8.6°C.


According to the IPCC, the greenhouse effect is due to the absorption of infrared radiation by greenhouse gases and partly by clouds, a totally 156 W/m2 (Watt per square meter). This absorption energy should be able to reradiate to the surface 346 W/m2, which is impossible according to energy conservations laws – a perpetual motion machine cannot be constructed.  The greenhouse effect is caused by the radiation of 271 W/m2 which increases the surface temperature by 33°C. Based on this fact, the contribution of carbon dioxide is only 7%, not 19% or 26% as calculated according to the IPCC’s definition.


Four energy sources fully explain the reradiation to the Earth’s surface. The atmosphere absorbs solar energy 75 W/m2, which together the solar radiation coming to the surface encompasses the net energy of 240 W/m2 received by the Earth.  Three other energy sources cause the greenhouse effect and they are the absorption of infrared radiation, latent heating (water vapor condensing into water) and sensible heating, totally 156+91+24 = 271 W/m2. The greenhouse effect is greater than the direct insolation. The carbon dioxide concentration of 400 ppm causes a warming effect of 2.5 °C. This result means that the climate models of the IPCC cannot be fitted into this total value, but the warming effect of carbon dioxide used in these models is 200% too great.

”The contributions of different factors are water 33.6%, latent heating 33.6%, clouds 13.3 %, sensible heating 8.9%, carbon dioxide 7.4%, ozone 2.6%, methane & nitrogen oxide 0.7%. Water dominates in the form of water vapor, latent heating, and clouds (80.5%). Although the impact of clouds is clearly positive in the greenhouse effect, a permanent increase of cloudiness always decreases the surface temperature”, said Ollila.  

The reproduction of radiative forcing research study showed 41.6% smaller value for concentration 560 ppm than the same of the IPCC. The radiative forcing values are transformed into warming values by the climate sensitivity parameter (CSP).  The CSP value of the IPCC is 0.5 K/(Wm-2), which includes so-called water feedback duplicating the warming effects of greenhouse gases.  According to Ollila, the CSP value is 0.27 K/(Wm-2) and the humidity and temperature observations confirm that there is no water feedback in the climate. ”The warming impacts of carbon dioxide according to the forcing equation and CSP of this study can be fitted into the overall warming effect of carbon dioxide, but this cannot be done with the climate models of the IPCC. It means that climate sensitivity is not 1.8°C but 0.6 °C”, said Ollila.  


Source: Dr. Antero Ollila,

Journal References:

  1. Ollila, Antero. Challenging the greenhouse effect specification and the climate sensitivity of the IPCC. Physical Science International Journal, 22(2): 1-19, 2019.

  2. Ollila, Antero. The greenhouse effect definition. Physical Science International Journal, 23(2): 1-5, 2019.

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