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Press release March 16, 2020

Greenhouse gases  did not cause the end of the temperature pause  

Greenhouse gases  did not cause the end of the temperature pause   


During the years 2000-2014, the global temperature hardly increased, and that period has been called the temperature pause or hiatus. The debate among the climate community has resulted in more than 200 research studies in some cases with opposite results about the reasons. My research study shows that the temperature effect during super El Niño 1997-98 and 2015-16 was due more than 50 % to the increased solar insolation on the surface and the same phenomenon explains the temperature increase after 2016. During the years 2000-2014, the emissions of carbon dioxide were 126 gigatons carbon (GtC) being 31% of the total emission after 1750, but the GH gases were not able to increase the temperature. According to the IPCC models, the increase should have been 0.4°C.  The strength of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas can be questioned and the changes of solar insolation should be included through cloudiness changes. 


The pause in the years 2000-2014 has been troublesome for the IPCC as well to most climate researchers, who endorse the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theory that the temperature change is due to the greenhouse gases. This matter explains the exceptionally high amount of 200 research studies on this issue. Research studies have not increased the understanding of the pause, but they have increased confusion, because the explanations have been very different and, in some cases, even conflicting with each other. The media may have not shown interest in this matter, because the IPCC has been silent.

“I have used two models in my research study. One is a model according to the IPCC’s warming models, and another is my own model. It is based on my earlier research studies and the essential feature is that the warming impact of carbon dioxide is only one third about the value of the IPCC’s model. I have not used positive water feedback because it cannot be found in the temperature and humidity observations. In both models has been included ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) phenomenon, the shortwave radiation changes, and the cloudiness changes,” says Ollila.

“The solar radiation changes turned out to be an important factor in two connections. The temperature effects of super El Niños 1997-98 and 2015-16 were narrowly over 50 % due to the solar insolation changes on the surface. When the weak La Nina was over in 2018, it was possible to calculate afterward that the pause was over after 2014. The temperature has been about 0.2°C higher in 2017-18 than during the pause, and the explanatory matter has been the abnormally high level of solar insolation on the surface. The solar activity has been in slight decline since 2000, and it has been shown that changes are due to the low-level clouds,” says Ollila.

“The calculated temperature of my own model follows the observed temperature with the mean error of 0.07°C that is about 100% smaller than the same as the IPCC’s model. The great impact of solar radiation changes during super El Niño is a new finding and it may lead to a better understanding of the ENSO event.  There is no common opinion about the reasons for the variations of low-level clouds in climate science. The Danish climate researcher Henrik Svensmark has introduced theory and proofs that cosmic radiation influences the low-level clouds. If this theory turned out to be true, it would mean that cosmic factors should be included in climate models,” says Ollila.


Source: Dr. Antero Ollila,,
Link to a webpage story

Journal References:

Ollila, Antero. The Pause End and Major Temperature Impacts During Super El Niños are Due to Shortwave.

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