The downward flux by the atmosphere is the same as the real greenhouse effect. This flux is excatly the same as the sum of four energy fluxes: LW radiation absorption 155.6 + SW radiation absotpion 75.0 + Latent heating 90.8 + 24.2 = 345.6 W/m2
ClimatExam Scientific analyses of the climate change and global warming by Dr. Antero Ollila
There are two main theories about the climate change:
1. AGW = Anthropogenic Global Warming
The climate change is caused by man and the global warming is due to the higher amount of greenhouse gases, therefore the reason for the climate change is anthropogenic (caused by humans). This theory is supported by IPCC.
2. Cosmic theory = Reasons originate outside of the Earth
The climate change is caused by natural forces coming outside from the Earth. One school of thoughts holdss the Sun responsible for the global warming, and some researchers thinks that the planets Jupiter and Saturn in our solar system have also a role. The author keeps both theories as very potential reasons, and that is why the author calls this combination ”Cosmic theory”. This theory includes also the history of the Earth, where our galaxy ”Milky way” has a significant role in explaining the ice ages of the Earth.
There are other approaches but they are not applicable because they have no scientific explanations to offer. The alternative approaches are:
- The climate change is real but there has always been changes and we do not know reasons.
- There is no climate change.
Why Cosmic theory is needed?
Let us look at Fig. 1 and analyze with common terms how well the AGW theory explains the the warming since 1930.
The IPCC model cannot explain the decrease of temperature from 1945 to 1980, nor pause 1998 onward. IThat would mean that this model can only somehow explain the temperature change since 1945 about 25 % of time. Would this kind of model even be considered to be published in other field of science than climate change science? No.
In reality, carbon dioxide has caused only 0.24 degrees of temperature increase assuming constant water content and therefore the IPCC’s model gives about 200 % high values due to the water feedback, which has been used twice without physical reasons: CO2 radiative forcing equation by Myhre et al. and by IPCC again by multiplying the anthropogenic radiative forcings by two. The details of this analysis can be found in other sections.
Because the relative humidity (RH) has not been constant since 1958 but it has decreased, it can compensate almost totally the temperature increase caused by CO2 increase.
Other theory is needed, because AGW simply has no scientific evidence.
Cosmic theory in a nutshell: The changes coming from the space have an influence mechanism through the changes in cosmic ray intensity variations, which amplifies the sun intensity variations through cloudiness changes and space dust variations can cause cloudiness variations, also.
The basic parts of the cosmic theory are represented.
There is a well-known connection between the sun activity changes and the cosmic rays intensity variations, as one can see in Fig. 2.
There are several research studies about the correlation between cosmic rays ant temperature changes. Some of these relationships are presented in Fig. 3.
Svensmark has pioneered the research work in finding the connection between cosmic rays and cloudiness changes, see Fig. 4.
The surface temperature of the Earth is very sensitive for cloudiness changes, because clouds change the albedo of the Earth. In Fig. 5 are two graphs, which show this relationship. The red graph is calculated from the energy balance of the Earth. It means cloud forcing 0.15 C/Cloudness-%. The present temperature increase of about 0.8 degrees could be caused by the cloudiness change of only 5 %.
The space dust theory is represented in Fig.6.
The space dust and the surface temperature has a very high correlation as one can see in Fig. 7.
In Fig 8 is represented two major correlations of the cosmic theory:
1) Correlation to the sun acitivity through aa-index and cosmic ray intensity variations=0.938
2) Correlation between positions of Jupiter and Saturn (space dust)=0.973.
Normally the correlations over 0.85 are good enough for the scientific proof. Of course the influence mechanism is needed as well. There is no direct evidence about the space dust cloud around the Earth's orbit, on the other hand there is no evidence that it could not be there. The correlation is extremely high, and therefore this theory must be taken seriously. Together with the sun theory, the cosmic theory provides a complete explanations for long, medium and short term variations of the Earth's temperature.