Press release August 13, 2020
Temperature increase 0.4 °C during the recent years is not due to carbon dioxide
The changes in solar radiation in the atmosphere have the greatest effect on the temperature since 2020
According to the latest IPCC’s assessment report AR5, the temperature has increased by 0.85 °C from 1750 to 2011. During the years 2000-2014, the global temperature hardly increased, and that period has been called the temperature pause or hiatus. During the years 2000-2014, the emissions of carbon dioxide were 126 gigatons carbon (GtC) being 31% of the total emission after 1750, but the greenhouse (GH) gases were not able to increase the temperature. According to the IPCC*s latest Assessment Reports 5 (AR5), the radiative forcing (RF) from 1750 to 2011 was 1.66 W/m2 and the shortwave radiation change was 0.05 Wm-2. The super El Nino 2015-16 finished the temperature pause and the temperature has stayed after 2019 about 0.4 °C higher than during the pause. The temperature change has increased by 45-50 % in a few years. Greenhouse gases cannot cause such a rapid change. Some climate researchers have suggested the delayed effect of greenhouse gases, but the real reason is the increased shortwave radiation from 2001 to 2019 total of 1.68 W/m2. The major change of 1.2 Wm-2 has happened after 2014. It means that the climate driver, which should be almost constant per the IPCC, has increased the temperature in 20 years by the same amount (1,66
W/m2 versus 1,68 W/m2) which took 270 years by carbon dioxide. This rapid temperature increase contests the IPCC’s climate models in two different ways.
”Since March 2000 the accurate radiation measurement data has been available from CERES satellites and they show the increase of shortwave radiation after the year 2014. I have updated my original research study (Ref. 1) and this broader description is available on my webpages. The team leader of NASA’s CERES team Dr. Loeb has published with his research team an article (Ref. 2), in which they conclude that the reason for the elevated temperatures after the pause is in shortwave radiation. The reason is not in the activity of the Sun, which has been slightly declining, but in the decreased amount of lower clouds. Therefore, less solar radiation is reflected into space”, said Ollila.
“The temperature of the GISTEMP dataset of NASA at the end of 2019 was 0.65 °C higher than in 2000. According to the science of the IPCC and NASA during 2000-2019 the temperature impact of greenhouse gases and aerosols was 0.3 °C and the effect of shortwave radiation was 0.8 °C. Totally it makes 1.1 °C, which is about 70 % higher than the observed temperature change. This result conflicts with the climate models of the IPCC in two ways. The IPCC has assumed that the changes originating from the Sun are insignificant regarding the temperature changes. Another even more serious issue is that the IPCC’s climate models run away too hot. There is no such great error in my own climate model. Because the IPCC does not release any information about the shortwave radiation changes and its impacts, also media is silent about it.”, said Ollila.
Loeb NG, Thorsen TJ, Norris JR, Wang H, Su W. Changes in earth's energy budget during and after the “pause” in global warming: an observational perspective. Climate. 2018;6:62. doi:103390/cli603006.
Ollila, A. The Pause End and Major Temperature Impacts During Super El Niños are Due to Shortwave Radiation Anomalies. Physical Science International Journal, 23(4), 1-19, 2020. http://www.journalpsij.com/index.php/PSIJ/article/view/30168.